Data

Year	EU27	Germany	France	Spain	Netherlands	EU27 YoY
2025	161.9	152.7	127.3	180.6	215.1	+5.5%
2024	153.4	147.9	126.4	160.2	198.2	+3.3%
2023	148.5	150.2	131.2	147.7	183.2	-0.2%
2022	148.8	164.1	131.8	142.0	186.8	+8.0%
2021	137.8	154.7	124.0	132.2	164.9	+8.3%
2020	127.2	138.7	116.6	127.5	144.1	+5.6%
2019	120.4	128.7	110.8	124.7	133.4	+4.9%
2018	114.8	121.6	107.3	118.6	124.4	+5.0%
2017	109.3	114.1	104.2	111.1	113.8	+4.8%
2016	104.3	107.5	101.0	104.6	105.3	+4.3%
2015	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	—

About this Dataset

The Eurostat House Price Index (EI_HPPI_Q) is the definitive cross-comparable measure of residential property price inflation across the European Union. Rebased to 2015=100 and published quarterly with roughly a 90-day lag, it covers all residential dwelling transactions by households in 27 member states plus the EU27 aggregate. As of Q4 2025, the EU27 index stands at 164.8 — up 5.5% year-on-year and 64.8% above its 2015 base, representing a decade of broad-based nominal appreciation that has transformed residential real estate into one of the EU’s largest household wealth categories.

Spain’s HPI reached 187.4 in Q4 2025, up 12.8% year-on-year — the steepest annual gain among major EU economies and 87.4% above the 2015 base. Germany, by contrast, at 153.7 remains 8.2% below its Q2 2022 peak, making it the most prominent case of unresolved housing market correction in the developed world.

The post-pandemic acceleration was the defining price episode of the modern EU housing cycle. Between Q1 2020 and Q2 2022, the EU27 index rose from 124.4 to 150.9 — a 21.3% gain in just nine quarters, driven by the combination of record-low ECB rates, post-lockdown demand for larger dwellings, and constrained new supply. The Netherlands ran especially hard in this period: its index climbed from 139.3 in Q1 2020 to 189.9 in Q1 2022, a 36.3% move that placed Amsterdam and its commuter belt among the most stretched housing markets in the developed world by price-to-income and price-to-rent metrics.

Index series: EI_HPPI_Q, unit I15_NSA — Index 2015=100, not seasonally adjusted
Coverage: Quarterly from Q1 2005; all residential dwelling types (houses and flats, new and existing)
Purchaser scope: Household sector only — excludes corporate and institutional buyer transactions
Compilation method: Laspeyres-type, chain-linked; sources include notarial registers, land registries, mortgage lender data, and survey-based approaches varying by country
Publication lag: Approximately 90 days after the reference quarter

The 2022–2024 correction unfolded unevenly. Germany fell from its 167.4 peak to a trough of 145.8 — a nominal decline of 12.9% — while Sweden dropped from 142.2 in Q1 2022 to 129.7 by Q4 2023 (-8.8%). France declined more modestly, from a peak of 134.3 in Q3 2022 to 125.7 in Q2 2024 (-6.4%). Spain was the notable outlier: the country saw no correction, with its index rising continuously from 139.1 in Q1 2022 through to 187.4 in Q4 2025. The Spanish divergence reflects a structural tightening of supply in major urban centres and coastal markets, combined with strong foreign buyer demand from non-EU purchasers attracted by residency-by-investment programmes, and a mortgage market where variable-rate loans are more prevalent — meaning affordability constraints are priced differently than in Germany’s predominantly fixed-rate market.

For fixed-income professionals working in RMBS, covered bonds, or real estate debt, the trajectory through 2025 is constructive but asymmetric. With the ECB deposit rate cut from 4.00% to 2.00% by end-2025, mortgage affordability has improved materially, and the EU27 index resumed growth across all tracked markets. The key risk variable for 2026 is whether the recovery in Germany and France translates to sustained price momentum or merely stabilises at a new equilibrium — a question that depends materially on the transmission speed of ECB cuts into retail mortgage rates and on new-build construction volumes, which remain suppressed across the bloc.

Frequently Asked Questions

The Eurostat House Price Index (HPI) — dataset code EI_HPPI_Q — measures the change in transaction prices paid by households for residential properties (houses and apartments, new and existing) in each reporting country. It is a Laspeyres-type chain-linked index rebased to 2015=100. The index covers all residential dwellings purchased by the household sector regardless of prior ownership status; it excludes commercial property, land-only transactions, and self-build housing. Data are compiled by national statistical institutes following the Eurostat owner-occupied housing price index methodology and are not seasonally adjusted in the headline NSA series.

The ECB's rate hiking cycle — which took the deposit facility rate from -0.50% in June 2022 to 4.00% by September 2023, a 450 basis point move in 15 months — was the primary structural shock to European residential property. Higher mortgage rates compressed affordability sharply in markets with predominantly variable-rate or short-fixed-term mortgage stock, most acutely in Germany and Sweden. The EU27 aggregate index peaked at 150.9 in Q3 2022 and fell to 147.6 by Q1 2023 — a modest -2.2% decline — but this EU-wide figure masks the full divergence. Germany fell nearly 13% from peak to trough while Spain, buoyed by tight supply and strong domestic and foreign demand, continued rising throughout the same period.

Germany's HPI peaked at 167.4 in Q2 2022 and fell to 145.8 by Q1 2024 — a decline of 12.9% in nominal terms, and materially steeper in real terms when adjusted for concurrent CPI inflation above 6%. The correction was unusually severe by EU standards for three structural reasons. First, Germany's mortgage market features high loan-to-value ratios and a large share of 10-year fixed-rate products due for refinancing, meaning rate shock fed through with a lag but then hit hard. Second, German property had undergone an extended re-rating: prices rose 102% in nominal terms between 2010 and the 2022 peak as real yields fell into negative territory, leaving valuations stretched relative to rental income. Third, construction activity had been insufficient to absorb demand, but when financing costs surged, new-build transactions collapsed, removing the marginal price support. As of Q4 2025, at 153.7, Germany's index remains 8.2% below its 2022 peak — the only major EU economy not to have fully recovered.

Institutional real estate investors use the Eurostat HPI in three primary ways. First, as a macro overlay for cross-country allocation decisions — the gap between Spain (+80.6% since 2015) and France (+27.3%) signals structurally different supply-demand dynamics that influence portfolio weighting. Second, as a deflator when constructing real price series: nominal HPI divided by HICP gives a real house price index that strips inflation illusion from apparent capital gains, relevant for assessing unlevered total returns in core residential strategies. Third, as a stress-test input for LTV covenant models on residential mortgage-backed securities and whole-loan portfolios — the 2022–2024 German correction offers a recent case study for credit stress calibration in DACH-focused RMBS tranches.

Three limitations are relevant for quantitative analysts. First, the HPI is a national-level aggregate that obscures significant sub-national variation — prime urban centres like Munich, Amsterdam, or Madrid typically lead and overshoot the national index on both upswings and downswings. Second, the index is not seasonally adjusted in its primary NSA form, meaning Q1 readings are systematically softer than Q3 readings due to transaction timing effects; analysts comparing sequential quarters should use the SA variant or apply their own seasonal correction. Third, coverage of new-build versus existing dwellings varies by country: in some member states new-build transactions are under-represented in registry data, potentially introducing structural bias in markets undergoing rapid construction cycles.

Data

About this Dataset

Frequently Asked Questions

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