EU27 HICP (2025 avg)
+2.5%
Annual average, all-items
↓ from 9.2% peak in 2022
Highest Inflation (2025)
+3.0%
Netherlands, annual average
vs. EU27 avg +2.5%
Lowest Inflation (2025)
+0.9%
France, annual average
Well below ECB 2% target
Divergence Spread
2.1pp
Netherlands minus France, 2025
vs. 5.7pp spread in 2022

Data

YearEU27YoY ChangeGermanyFranceItalySpainNetherlandsGreece
20252.5-0.1pp2.30.91.62.73.02.9
20242.6-3.8pp2.52.31.12.93.23.0
20236.4-2.8pp6.15.76.03.44.24.2
20229.2+6.3pp8.65.98.78.311.69.3
20212.9+2.2pp3.22.12.03.02.80.6
20200.7-0.7pp0.40.5-0.1-0.31.1-1.2
20191.4-0.4pp1.41.30.70.82.70.5
20181.8+0.2pp1.92.11.31.71.60.8
20171.6+1.4pp1.71.21.32.01.31.1
20160.2+0.1pp0.40.3-0.1-0.40.10.0

About this Dataset

EU27 HICP inflation averaged 2.5% across 2025 and then eased further to 2.0% in January 2026 — the first print below the ECB’s 2% target since the post-pandemic inflation surge began in earnest. That reading, confirmed by Eurostat on 25 February 2026, marks an extraordinary four-year round trip: from below 1% during the pandemic trough of 2020, the bloc’s headline rate surged to a 9.2% annual average in 2022, peaked intra-year at 11.5% in October 2022, and then disinflated to on-target within 28 months — faster than any comparable episode in post-Maastricht European monetary history.

The Netherlands recorded a monthly HICP print of 17.1% in September 2022, the highest reading among the major eurozone economies during the energy crisis. By December 2025, the same country had re-converged to 2.7% — a 14.4 percentage point fall in 27 months.

The 2025 country cross-section is analytically consequential for rate path modelling. France, at a 0.9% annual average, sits nearly 1.1 percentage points below the ECB’s 2% target and represents the weakest inflation outcome among the six economies covered. Germany’s 2.3%, Italy’s 1.6%, and France’s 0.9% are all sub-target, while the Netherlands at 3.0%, Greece at 2.9%, and Spain at 2.7% remain modestly above it. This configuration — with a majority of major member states at or below target — creates asymmetric pressure on the Governing Council to ease, though services inflation stickiness and wage growth in Germany have complicated the dovish case.

Key dataset parameters:

  • Source: Eurostat PRC_HICP_MANR — monthly HICP annual rates of change
  • Coverage: January 2010 to January 2026 (193 monthly observations per geography)
  • Methodology: COICOP CP00 all-items HICP; percentage change versus the same month of the prior year
  • Geographies: EU27 aggregate, Germany (DE), France (FR), Italy (IT), Spain (ES), Netherlands (NL), Greece (EL)
  • Frequency: Monthly source data; annual averages used in the table
  • Base: Not index-based — expressed directly as annual rate of change (%)

The 2022–2023 inflation episode exposed a structural feature of the eurozone that economists had theorised but rarely observed at this magnitude: the single monetary policy constraint amplifies real divergence. Spain’s HICP peaked at 10.7% in July 2022, but its energy mix and regulatory price cap mechanisms meant it disinflated faster than Germany, which hit 11.6% in October 2022. Italy’s 12.6% October 2022 peak — the highest in this cohort — reflected a relatively gas-intensive industrial base combined with lower pre-existing structural inflation credibility than Germany. By contrast, France’s semi-regulated energy tariffs capped the HICP shock at 7.1%, creating a Franco-German spread of more than four percentage points at the peak — a divergence large enough to render a single rate setting near-incoherent for both economies simultaneously.

For sovereign credit and rates analysts, the 2025 configuration presents a distinct set of risks. Italian BTPs benefit from sub-target HICP (1.6% in 2025), which raises real yields and supports carry. But below-target inflation in an economy with debt-to-GDP above 135% also signals weaker nominal growth dynamics, making the debt sustainability calculus more sensitive to ECB rate normalisation. Spain’s relatively elevated 2.7% average — persistent even after the 2022 shock — reflects tight services inflation linked to tourism sector pricing power and a tighter labour market than the eurozone median, a dynamic that supports Bono carry at the cost of slower ECB accommodation.

Frequently Asked Questions

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is compiled by Eurostat using a methodology standardised across all EU member states, enabling genuine cross-country price comparison. It differs from national CPIs in coverage — most notably, the HICP excludes owner-occupied housing costs in its standard specification, which affects country rankings; Germany's relatively low share of homeownership means its HICP and national CPI track closely, while the exclusion matters more in the Netherlands and Spain. The HICP is the ECB's sole inflation mandate metric — the Governing Council targets HICP inflation "below, but close to, 2%" over the medium term.
The ECB sets a single policy rate for nineteen eurozone members (the euro area subset of EU27), creating a structural tension when inflation diverges sharply across countries. During 2022–2023, the Netherlands peaked at 17.1% (September 2022) while France held below 7.1% — a spread of more than ten percentage points across two founding eurozone members. A single rate setting adequate for France was deeply inadequate for the Netherlands, and vice versa. Macro funds model this divergence to identify sovereign bonds where real yields are most distorted; positions in OATs versus Dutch DSLs, or BTPs versus Bonos, are directly informed by HICP dispersion analysis.
The surge was the product of three sequential shocks compounding on pandemic-disrupted supply chains. First, pandemic-era fiscal transfers inflated goods demand against constrained production capacity (2021). Second, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered an energy price shock that transmitted directly into HICP — EU27 annual HICP reached 11.5% in October 2022, driven almost entirely by energy and food components. Third, second-round effects pushed services inflation higher into 2023. The subsequent disinflation was rapid by historical standards, driven by base effects from high 2022 energy prices, ECB rate hikes totalling 450 basis points from July 2022 to September 2023, and a normalisation of supply chains. By 2025, EU27 HICP averaged 2.5% — within reach of target but with persistent divergence between member states.
Real yields on euro-denominated sovereign bonds are computed as the nominal yield minus HICP inflation for the relevant country. Because HICP rates diverge materially across member states — Italy at 1.6% versus Spain at 2.7% in 2025 — the real yield on Italian BTPs and Spanish Bonos can differ by more than 100 basis points even when nominal yields are close. Inflation-linked euro sovereign bonds (BTPei, OATi, DBRi) use HICP ex-tobacco as the principal adjustment index, making country-level HICP forecasting directly relevant to linker carry calculations and break-even analysis.
Annual averages smooth intra-year volatility and lag turning points. The 2022 energy shock, for example, peaked in October 2022 at 11.5% for EU27, but the annual average of 9.2% obscures the sharpness of the spike and its subsequent fall. For momentum analysis and ECB rate-path positioning, monthly HICP prints are superior. Additionally, the all-items HICP (CP00) shown here includes volatile food and energy components; Eurostat publishes HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food (HICPX), which the ECB and most sell-side economists treat as the more policy-relevant "core" measure. Cross-country comparisons are broadly valid methodologically, but small differences in the treatment of telecommunications, package holidays, and financial services can create residual non-comparability.