US Index (Q3 2025)
234.2
Nominal, 2010=100
+1.2% YoY
Fastest Gainer
+7.8%
Australia, YoY Q4 2025
Index at 211.0
Canada Drawdown
-19.5%
From Q1 2022 peak of 250.7
Index now 201.8
Germany Correction
-8.1%
From Q2 2022 peak of 196.1
Index recovering to 180.3

Data

PeriodUSUKGermanyAustraliaCanadaJapanUS YoYAU YoY
Q4 2025172.7211.0201.8+7.8%
Q3 2025234.2172.7180.3204.6205.7145.5+1.2%+5.0%
Q2 2025233.6168.6178.6199.9210.1143.6+1.8%+4.1%
Q1 2025233.9169.6176.8196.5210.3145.2+2.6%+4.5%
Q4 2024233.6168.6174.8195.7208.9137.7+3.5%+5.8%
Q3 2024231.4168.2174.6194.8212.4139.4+3.7%+7.4%
Q2 2024229.5164.6173.2192.1216.4138.5+4.8%+8.9%
Q1 2024227.9162.6170.8188.1213.5138.7+5.4%+9.6%
Q4 2023225.8164.6171.5185.1212.8134.0+5.5%+7.2%
Q3 2023223.1166.7174.9181.4221.3135.1+4.7%+2.4%
Q2 2023219.0163.9177.6176.5222.6134.8+2.2%-3.8%
Q1 2023216.2164.8180.1171.7211.9135.3+3.7%-6.1%

About this Dataset

Residential property is the world’s largest asset class by value, and the BIS WS_SPP index provides the most comparable cross-country view of its price trajectory. As of the latest available data (Q3/Q4 2025), the picture is one of bifurcation: Australia (+7.8% YoY) and Japan (+4.4% YoY) are accelerating, the US and UK are growing modestly at +1–2.5%, and Canada remains in a correction cycle now 19.5% below its Q1 2022 peak. Germany, having corrected 8.1% from its own Q2 2022 high, shows the earliest signs of stabilisation with three consecutive quarters of renewed appreciation in 2025.

The 2020–2022 global synchronised surge — in which all six economies gained 20–40% in nominal terms — was the most rapid coordinated residential price inflation on record. The subsequent divergence is equally instructive: identical monetary tightening produced radically different outcomes depending on mortgage market structure, supply elasticity, and demographic demand flows.

The US index has risen from 79.5 (Q4 2000) to 234.2 (Q3 2025), a nominal gain of 195% over 25 years. The post-GFC recovery was prolonged by supply constraints that persisted through the 2010s; the pandemic boom of 2020–2022 added a further 35% in nine quarters. Unlike Canada or Germany, the US correction never materialised: the index has recorded positive YoY growth in every quarter since Q3 2012, aided by a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage market structure that insulates existing borrowers from rate reset risk and reduces forced selling pressure when rates rise.

  • Data source: BIS WS_SPP dataset, series code Q.[country].N.628 — nominal, all dwellings, 2010=100
  • Frequency: Quarterly; released with a one-to-two quarter lag depending on country
  • Coverage: Q1 1970 to present (Germany, US, Australia); Q2 1968 (UK); Q1 1955 (Japan)
  • Scope: Nominal prices — not adjusted for inflation; analysts should deflate against country CPI for real comparisons
  • Geography: National aggregates; subnational city-level data available separately from some national sources

Canada presents the most analytically significant case study for stress scenario modelling. The index reached 250.7 in Q1 2022 — driven by speculative demand, low rates, and pandemic migration from cities — before declining steadily to 201.8 by Q4 2025. That 19.5% nominal decline translates to an approximately 30% real decline when adjusted for Canadian CPI over the same period. For underwriters of Canadian RMBS, the key risk variable is the vintage concentration of originations in H1 2022: portfolios heavily weighted to that cohort carry loans originated at peak collateral values that are now materially impaired on a mark-to-market basis.

Frequently Asked Questions

The BIS Selected Residential Property Prices (WS_SPP) dataset aggregates national house price indices compiled by central banks, statistical offices, and real estate bodies in each participating country. All series are rebased to 2010=100 to enable cross-country comparison. The indices measure nominal transaction prices — they are not adjusted for CPI inflation, so real price appreciation requires deflating against each country's own price level. Coverage varies by country; for the US the primary source is the FHFA purchase-only index; for Australia, the ABS residential property price index; for Germany, the Deutsche Bundesbank composite.
Private equity real assets teams and infrastructure funds use national house price indices as a primary input for entry valuation benchmarking, exit cap rate assumptions, and stress testing. A trajectory showing sustained nominal price appreciation well above construction cost inflation (as in Australia, +110% since 2010) signals compressed yields and potential for cap rate mean reversion. Conversely, a sharp correction — Canada declined 19.5% from its Q1 2022 peak to Q4 2025 — raises questions about debt service coverage on leveraged residential portfolios and creates distressed acquisition opportunities for value-oriented buyers. German residential assets, which peaked at 196.1 in Q2 2022 before correcting to 180.3 by Q3 2025, represent a specific opportunity set for pan-European real estate funds as financing conditions ease.
The 2020–2022 price surge was synchronised across markets, driven by pandemic-era demand shift to larger housing, historically low mortgage rates, and supply constrained by construction disruption. The US index rose from 158.4 in Q1 2020 to 214.3 in Q2 2022 — a 35% gain in nine quarters. The subsequent divergence from mid-2022 reflected differential central bank tightening velocity and structural market features. Canada, with the most rate-sensitive mortgage market (predominantly short-duration variable-rate mortgages), experienced the sharpest correction: -19.5% from peak. Germany corrected on a combination of rate shock and post-pandemic reversal of urban demand. Australia defied expectations of a correction — tight immigration-driven rental demand and constrained supply saw prices resume appreciation in 2023 and continue through 2025.
Residential property prices are the primary collateral for mortgage-backed securities. A declining national index compresses loan-to-value ratios on existing portfolios, potentially breaching covenant thresholds on covered bond programmes and increasing expected loss assumptions on senior tranches of RMBS. For Canada specifically, the 19.5% drawdown from 2022 peaks directly affected the implied collateral coverage in outstanding non-agency Canadian RMBS pools. Analysts should monitor the deviation of the current index level from origination-vintage price levels — vintages underwritten in Q1 2022 at Canada's peak face materially different collateral dynamics than those written at Q4 2025 levels. The US series, by contrast, has sustained positive YoY growth throughout the correction cycle, limiting negative collateral effects on FNMA/FHLMC pools.
Australia's residential property price index has risen 110% since 2010, the strongest performance among the six tracked economies. Three structural factors explain the divergence. First, net overseas migration reached record levels in 2022–2024, compressing rental vacancy rates to below 1% in Sydney and Melbourne and creating acute demand-side pressure. Second, planning system constraints — particularly restrictive zoning in major cities — limit supply response regardless of price signals. Third, the Australian mortgage market is dominated by variable-rate products, but unlike Canada, borrowers have benefited from stronger household income growth and a labour market that remained at multi-decade low unemployment through the rate cycle. The Reserve Bank of Australia began easing in early 2025, adding further price support.