{"version":1,"asset_type":"statistical_series","data_type":"time_series","slug":"us-unemployment-rate-ilo","url":"https://apiardata.com/statistics/us-unemployment-rate-ilo","html_url":"https://apiardata.com/statistics/us-unemployment-rate-ilo/","title":"United States Unemployment Rate (ILO, % of Labor Force) (2025)","description":"United States's Unemployment Rate (ILO, % of Labor Force): 4.2 % of labor force (ILO methodology) in 2025, +0.2pp YoY.","domain":"labor","category":"Labour & Employment","keywords":["Labour & Employment","World Bank","United States","2025"],"publisher":"World Bank","frequency":"Annual","geography":"United States","temporal_coverage":"1990/2025","unit":"% of labor force (ILO methodology)","last_updated":"2026-04-26","last_updated_text":"26 April 2026","data_as_of":"2025","variable_measured":"United States Unemployment Rate (ILO, % of Labor Force)","license":"https://apiardata.com/data-license","is_accessible_for_free":true,"sources":[{"name":"World Bank","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?locations=US"}],"meta":[{"label":"Frequency","value":"Annual"},{"label":"Coverage","value":"1990–2025"},{"label":"Observations","value":"35"},{"label":"Geography","value":"United States"},{"label":"Last updated","value":"26 April 2026"}],"kpis":[{"label":"United States (2025)","value":"4.2","unit":"% of labor force (ILO methodology)","trend":{"direction":"up","value":"+0.2pp YoY"}},{"label":"YoY Change","value":"+0.2pp","unit":"percentage points"},{"label":"Trend","value":"up","unit":""},{"label":"Series length","value":"35","unit":"years of data"}],"series":[{"key":"value","label":"United States Unemployment Rate (ILO, % of Labor Force)"}],"observation_count":35,"observations":[{"period":"1991","value":6.8},{"period":"1992","value":7.5},{"period":"1993","value":6.9},{"period":"1994","value":6.119},{"period":"1995","value":5.65},{"period":"1996","value":5.451},{"period":"1997","value":5},{"period":"1998","value":4.511},{"period":"1999","value":4.219},{"period":"2000","value":3.992},{"period":"2001","value":4.731},{"period":"2002","value":5.783},{"period":"2003","value":5.989},{"period":"2004","value":5.529},{"period":"2005","value":5.084},{"period":"2006","value":4.623},{"period":"2007","value":4.622},{"period":"2008","value":5.784},{"period":"2009","value":9.254},{"period":"2010","value":9.633},{"period":"2011","value":8.949},{"period":"2012","value":8.069},{"period":"2013","value":7.375},{"period":"2014","value":6.168},{"period":"2015","value":5.28},{"period":"2016","value":4.869},{"period":"2017","value":4.355},{"period":"2018","value":3.896},{"period":"2019","value":3.669},{"period":"2020","value":8.055},{"period":"2021","value":5.349},{"period":"2022","value":3.65},{"period":"2023","value":3.638},{"period":"2024","value":4.022},{"period":"2025","value":4.198}],"table":{"columns":[{"key":"year","label":"Year"},{"key":"value","label":"% of labor force (ILO methodology)"},{"key":"yoyChange","label":"YoY Change"}],"rows":[{"year":"2025","value":"4.2","yoyChange":"+0.2pp"},{"year":"2024","value":"4.0","yoyChange":"+0.4pp"},{"year":"2023","value":"3.6","yoyChange":"unchanged"},{"year":"2022","value":"3.6","yoyChange":"-1.7pp"},{"year":"2021","value":"5.3","yoyChange":"-2.8pp"},{"year":"2020","value":"8.1","yoyChange":"+4.4pp"},{"year":"2019","value":"3.7","yoyChange":"-0.2pp"},{"year":"2018","value":"3.9","yoyChange":"-0.5pp"},{"year":"2017","value":"4.4","yoyChange":"-0.5pp"},{"year":"2016","value":"4.9","yoyChange":"-0.4pp"},{"year":"2015","value":"5.3","yoyChange":"-0.9pp"},{"year":"2014","value":"6.2","yoyChange":"-1.2pp"},{"year":"2013","value":"7.4","yoyChange":"-0.7pp"},{"year":"2012","value":"8.1","yoyChange":"-0.8pp"},{"year":"2011","value":"8.9","yoyChange":"-0.7pp"},{"year":"2010","value":"9.6","yoyChange":"+0.3pp"},{"year":"2009","value":"9.3","yoyChange":"+3.5pp"},{"year":"2008","value":"5.8","yoyChange":"+1.2pp"},{"year":"2007","value":"4.6","yoyChange":"unchanged"},{"year":"2006","value":"4.6","yoyChange":"-0.5pp"}]},"qa":[{"question":"What does the US ILO unemployment rate measure and how does it relate to the BLS U-3 rate?","answer":"The World Bank's US ILO unemployment rate is derived from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Population Survey data, standardised to the International Labour Organization definition: a person is unemployed if they had no work in the reference week, were available to start, and had actively sought work in the past four weeks. In practice, this aligns closely with the BLS's headline U-3 rate — the figure most commonly cited in Federal Reserve communications and financial markets. The ILO/World Bank annual figure is an annual average of monthly U-3 readings. The BLS also publishes broader measures: U-6 (which adds marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons) typically runs 3–4pp above U-3, and is used by labour economists as a measure of labour market slack when U-3 is low."},{"question":"What has driven the rise from the 3.6% trough to 4.2%, and did the Sahm Rule trigger?","answer":"The US unemployment rate troughed at 3.6% in both 2022 and 2023 — the tightest labour market since the late 1960s — before rising to 4.0% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025. The increase reflects the lagged effect of the Federal Reserve's 525bp rate hiking cycle (March 2022 to July 2023): higher borrowing costs slowed hiring in interest rate-sensitive sectors (construction, technology, financial services) and reduced job openings from a record 12 million in 2022 to more historically normal levels. The Sahm Rule — an empirical indicator developed by economist Claudia Sahm that signals recession risk when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5pp above its prior 12-month low — was technically crossed during 2024, generating significant commentary. However, 2024–2025 showed the Sahm Rule's limitations: labour supply expansion (particularly from immigration, which boosted the labor force denominator) pushed the headline rate up without the income contraction that typically accompanies a genuine recession signal. The NBER has not declared a recession."},{"question":"How does US unemployment compare with major peers and what does it imply for Fed policy?","answer":"At 4.2% in 2025, the US ILO unemployment rate is modestly above Germany (3.8%) and the UK (4.7%), well below France (7.7%), Italy (6.1%), and Spain (10.5%). The US-Germany gap is unusually narrow — historically US unemployment has run below Germany's outside of recession. For the Federal Reserve, a 4.2% unemployment rate with inflation still above the 2% target creates the classic dual-mandate tension: the labour market is not so weak as to demand aggressive easing, yet inflation progress toward target has been real. The Fed's 2025 rate decisions have emphasised data dependency, with the unemployment rate and monthly payrolls (non-farm payrolls, NFP) serving as the primary labour market inputs alongside the CPI/PCE inflation readings. A further 0.5pp rise in unemployment — to approximately 4.7% — would likely accelerate the pace of Fed easing."},{"question":"What does the 35-year historical series reveal about US labour market cycles?","answer":"The World Bank series from 1990 to 2025 captures four major US labour market cycles. The 1990–1991 recession pushed unemployment to approximately 7.3%, followed by a multi-year recovery. The 2000–2001 dot-com bust took unemployment from a trough of 4.0% to 6.0%. The 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis produced the series peak of 9.6% in 2010 — the most severe US labour market contraction since the Great Depression, reflecting the collapse of construction employment, financial sector deleveraging, and the housing bust. The 2020 COVID shock was the sharpest: unemployment jumped from 3.7% in 2019 to 8.1% in 2020, then recovered to 3.6% by 2022 — the fastest labour market recovery in the modern data series, supported by $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus. The current 4.2% represents a normalisation toward pre-pandemic conditions rather than a cyclical deterioration."}]}