CPB World Trade Monitor: World Trade Volume Index
The CPB World Trade Monitor's global volume index rose to 111.7 in December 2025, up 4.9% year-over-year. Monthly data for 97 countries, 2000-present.
Data
| Month | Global Volume Index | MoM Change (%) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | 111.7 | +0.4% | +4.9% |
| Nov 2025 | 111.3 | +1.8% | +4.8% |
| Oct 2025 | 109.3 | -1.4% | +3.1% |
| Sep 2025 | 110.8 | +1.2% | +4.9% |
| Aug 2025 | 109.5 | -0.4% | +3.0% |
| Jul 2025 | 110 | +1.6% | +5.1% |
| Jun 2025 | 108.3 | -0.5% | +3.2% |
| May 2025 | 108.8 | -0.4% | +4.5% |
| Apr 2025 | 109.2 | -0.9% | +4.6% |
| Mar 2025 | 110.2 | +2.7% | +7.0% |
| Feb 2025 | 107.3 | +0.3% | +3.1% |
| Jan 2025 | 106.9 | +0.4% | +4.3% |
| Dec 2024 | 106.5 | +0.3% | +3.3% |
About this Analysis
The CPB World Trade Monitor's global merchandise trade volume index reached 111.7 in December 2025, up 4.9% year-over-year and 0.4% from November — one of the most closely watched monthly gauges of physical trade flows. Produced by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis from customs and national-accounts data covering 97 countries, the index closed out 2025 having risen from 106.9 in January, with full-year growth of 4.4%, the strongest annual pace since 2022.
The Monitor measures physical volume, not value — it strips out price effects to isolate the quantity of goods actually shipped, which is why it can diverge from trade-value headlines during commodity-price swings. The data also carries an approximately 6-week publication lag, so the December 2025 reading, the freshest available, reflects trade activity from roughly six weeks earlier rather than real-time conditions.
The dataset in brief:
- Publisher: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
- Base year: 2021 = 100
- Coverage: 97 countries across 9 regions, split into Advanced Economies and Emerging Economies sub-indices
- Frequency: Monthly
- Release lag: Approximately 6 weeks after the reference month
- History: Continuous monthly series from January 2000 to present
Momentum through the fourth quarter was uneven rather than uniformly strong. The index fell 1.4% month-over-month in October before rebounding 1.8% in November and adding a further 0.4% in December — a pattern more consistent with shipment timing and data noise than with a clean acceleration in underlying demand. Analysts reading a single month in isolation risk overstating the signal; the multi-month trend, not any one release, carries the information.
History is the reason the index gets tracked so closely. It fell from 84.6 in January 2008 to 68.8 in January 2009 as global trade seized up during the financial crisis, and from 93.4 in January 2020 to 90.7 by July as pandemic disruptions hit shipping and production. Both episodes show volume contracting ahead of the broader GDP data that later confirmed each downturn, which is the basis for treating the Monitor as a coincident, and at times leading, indicator of global economic activity.
For an analyst, the December reading points to broad-based expansion in global goods demand rather than a change in trend. The index rose in four of the final six months of 2025, moving from 110.0 in July to 111.7 in December, and every month from September through December posted year-over-year growth above 3%. Combined with CPB's roughly 97% coverage of world trade, the series remains one of the fastest available reads on global trade momentum, ahead of quarterly GDP and export releases. The caveat: the ~6-week lag means the freshest print is already dated by the time it publishes.
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